Commercial interests, naval ambitions and shifting alliances are raising the risk of war – as regional states pick sides
Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly insisted that Ethiopia must secure direct access to the Red Sea. In his October address to parliament, he called it ‘inevitable’, citing legal, historic, geographic and economic grounds. He had raised the issue before becoming prime minister in 2018, and reminded MPs that he re-established Ethiopia’s navy a year later. His arguments range from Ethiopia’s status as the world’s most populous landlocked country, the strategic risks of relying solely on Djibouti, to the economic cost – over US$1.6 billion annually in port fees and related expenses. Abiy said the 1993 agreement that granted Eritrea independence after a 30-year war should not have left Ethiopia landlocked – an anomaly that must now be rectified.